京津冀能源消耗的碳足迹及其影响因素分析

Factor Analysis of Carbon Footprint of Beijing Tianjin Hebei Province Energy Consumption and Influence

近年来,京津冀地区环境污染严重导致环境面临压力。运用能源消耗碳足迹衡量指标,计算出京津冀地区1996~2011年的能源消耗碳足迹;然后利用STIRPAT模型进行拟合回归,讨论经济增长与碳足迹之间的定量关系,找出能源消耗碳足迹的影响因素,从而验证京津冀地区不存在环境库兹涅茨曲线。结果表明：首先,京津冀地区能源消耗结构一直变化不大,以煤、石油、天然气为主,其中煤在能源消耗中所占比重最大。其次,京津冀地区碳足迹呈现上升趋势。再次,京津冀地区人均GDP和能耗结构是驱动碳足迹增长的主要因素,但产业结构对碳足迹的影响力也不容忽视。最后,脱钩指数分析表明京津冀地区能源消耗与经济增长之间处于相对脱钩状态,而回归分析表明经济增长与碳足迹之间不存在环境库兹涅茨曲线。

In recent years, the pollution of the environment in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is serious, so it makes the pressure of environment in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. The essay measures the carbon footprint of energy consumption, and calculates the carbon footprint of energy consumption in 1996 -2011 years of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. followed by fitting using STIRPAT regression model and discusses the quantitative relationship between economic growth and carbonfootprint, The paper find out the factors that affect the carbon footprint of energy consumption, and verifies that the environmental Kuznets curve does not exist in Beijing and Tianjin Hebei. The results show that：firstly, energy consumption structure has changed little in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei , including coal, oil and natural gas, and coal in the energy consumption is in the largest proportion. Secondly, carbon footprint shows a rising trend the Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. Once again, GDP per capita and energy structure are the main factors to drive the growth of the carbon footprint, but the influence of industrial structure on carbon footprint can not be ignored in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei. Finally, the decoupling index analysis shows that energy consumption and economic growth are in the relative decoupling state in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and regression analysis showed that there is no environmental Kuznets curve between economic growth and carbon footprint.