为“需求决定房价说”正名——基于城镇居民人均住房面积的思考

To Identify the Conclusion that Demand Determines Housing Price above the Reflection on Per Capita Housing Area of Urban Residents

消费者对商品住宅的需求分为实际需求和潜在需求两类,前者决定着房价水平,后者有一部分会向前者转化,进而激发投机（投资）需求,推高房价。在研究需求对商品住宅价格作用机制的基础上,结合人口变化、城镇化进程和商品住宅供给三个影响因素,对2020年~2050年中国城镇居民人均住房面积和商品住宅价格变化趋势进行了预测。

The classification of the consumption demand in commercial housing are actual demand and potential demand, the former determines the housing price level, while the latter will partly transfer into the former to promote investment demand and increase the price. Based on studying the impact mechanism on commercial housing price, with the combination of the population variation, urbanization process and commercial house supply, this paper predicts the changing trend of commercial house price and per capita housing area of urban residents.