装备研制项目可靠性风险预警技术研究

Research on Pre-warning Technology for Reliability Risk of Equipment Research Project

目的研究装备研制项目可靠性风险预警技术及应用。方法从可靠性风险预警技术对装备研制项目整体质量的影响度出发,对装备研制项目可靠性风险进行特征归类,分析现有装备研制项目可靠性风险预警流程的局限性。结果提出了装备研制项目可靠性风险预警机构的组织管理和权限建议,引入风险阈值理论优化了装备研制项目险预警流程,并给出优化流程中不同风险分析子集的模型应用情景。结论研究提出的装备研制项目可靠性风险预警体系框架和分析模型,可为可靠性风险预警实践提供理论支撑。

Objective To study the pre-warning technology for reliability risk of equipment research project and its application. Methods Starting from the influence of pre-warning technology for reliability risk on the whole quality of equipment research project,this paper classified the reliability risk of equipment research project based on characteristics,and analyzed the limitations of the current pre-warning process for reliability risk of equipment research project as well. Results This paper proposed the organization management of pre-warning provider for reliability risk and limits of authority,and introduced the risk threshold theory to optimize the pre-warning process of risk for equipment research project,and suggested the model application of different risk analysis subset in the optimization process. Conclusion The architecture framework and analysis model of pre-warning system for reliability risk of equipment research project proposed in this research could provide theoretical support for pre-warning technology for reliability risk in practice.