跟踪分析方法及其在圈闭评价过程中的作用

Performance tracking and its role in prospect evaluation

圈闭评价过程中的跟踪分析方法是通过分析历史数据,识别风险分析过程中出现的误差甚至错误,并修正、完善和优化风险分析方法的技术。跟踪分析包括对发现概率的反馈分析和对资源评价的反馈分析,通常使用的方法包括风险直方图法、关键风险分析法、百分位数直方图法和双对数交会图法,其核心内容均是系统性的钻前钻后对比分析。通过详细介绍各跟踪分析方法的适用范围、使用方法和一些注意事项,对跟踪分析的优点、必要性和长期坚持执行所带来的价值进行了论述,提出了油公司应组织专门团队开展跟踪分析的建议。

Based on E＆P historical data analysis, the performance tracking in prospect evaluation, including the feedbacks from POD estimation and reviews from resource volume evaluation, is a technique to identify the mistakes or errors of risk assessment and thus to improve the accuracy of risk assessment. Its study methods include risk histo- gram, key risk factor identification, percentile histogram and log-log cross plot. The core of the study methods is to systematically review and analyze both pre-drill estimation and post-drill results. This article introduces the meth- odology, application scope and some notes of performance tracking, discusses its advantages, necessity and long- term benefit, and suggests that a professional team of performance tracking should be established.