传动轴概率-非概率混合可靠性分析

Probability and Non-probability Hybrid Reliability Analysis of the Transmission Shaft

实际传动轴可靠性分析中,一部分变量由于样本数量多可以用概率密度函数描述,一部分变量只知道其变化区间。针对这种情况,提出传动轴概率-非概率混合可靠性分析模型,该模型能同时考虑了传动轴的概率和非概率两种不确定因素的影响以及传动轴刚度失效和强度失效两个方面。通过1阶Taylor展开和区间扩张,求出传动轴可靠度的上界与下界。通过和传统概率可靠性分析相对比较,算例验证了该方法的正确性和有效性。

In the practical reliability analysis of the transmission shaft,there is enough large amount of experimental samples to using probability density function for some variable.However,for other variable,the available information is that those nondeterministic variables are known within certain intervals.A probabilistic and non-probabilistic hybrid reliability model is presented for the transmission shaft.In this method,the impacts of the two kinds of uncertain information are considered.The expressions of the upper and lower bounds of the reliability are derived by the aid of the Taylor expansion and interval extension of functions.From the comparisons of the outcomes of traditional probability reliability analysis,this method is proved to be feasible and applicable.