国际金融危机对中国贫困的影响——基于经济增长渠道的实证估计

The Influence of International Financial Crisis on China's Poverty:An Empirical Estimates based on Economic Growth Channel

以经济增长为渠道，本文分3步就国际金融危机对中国贫困的影响进行实证估计。本文的估算结果显示：在国际金融危机冲击及其对经济增长的负面影响下，2008—2010年中国城镇贫困人口收入分别下降了0．474％、0．569％和0．284％。从三大需求角度来看，贫困人口收入下降主要源于国际金融危机所致的净出口大幅下滑；从三次产业角度来看，国际金融危机对贫困人口收入的不利影响主要集中在第二、第三产业上，在第二产业上的作用力度更大，而在第三产业上的持续时间更长。根据上述研究结论，针对国际金融危机的冲击及其对贫困人口收入的负面影响，政府应该在迅速“点燃”经济增长的同时，积极实施帮助穷人脱贫的发展战略。

With economic growth as the channel,this paper estimates empirically by three steps the influence of international financial crisis on China's poverty.The estimation results show that China's urban poverty population income fell respectively by 0.474%,0.569% and 0.284% during 2008 ~ 2010 under the shocking of international financial crisis and its negative impact on economic growth.From the angle of the three requirements,poor income's fall mainly comes from the sharp decline in net exports caused by international financial crisis; from the angle of three industries,the negative influence of international financial crisis on poverty population income is mainly concentrated in the second and third industry,the action dynamics on the second industry is stronger,and it lasts longer on the third industry.Based on the above research conclusion,according to the international financial crisis and its negative impact on poverty population income,the government should ' light' rapidly economic growth,at the same time,implement actively the development strategy to help the poor be lifted out of poverty.