后危机时代中国经常项目变动趋势分析

The Study on the Trend of China's Current Account in the Post-Crisis Era

本文通过研究2007～2012年中国经常项目差额占GDP比重降低的主要原因发现，贸易差额大幅降低是主要因素，并以此为研究对象，分别从周期性因素和结构性因素两方面去分析导致这一变化的深层原因，最后基于对中国贸易结构和贸易竞争力变化的判断认为，未来十年中国贸易顺差有望持续减少，贸易不平衡状况将有所改善，甚至不排除出现整体贸易逆差的状况。

The paper studies the balance of China's current account in the year 2007 ~ 2012,and finds that the main reason for the decrease of ratio of the current account to GDP is that China's trade surplus decrease deeply,and the paper analysis the deep-root cause by two aspect:cyclical factors and structural factors.Finally,the paper estimates that China's current account to GDP will decrease gradually in the next ten years,the trade imbalance will be improved and the trade deficit may accur and has important impacts on China's current account to GDP.