气候政策是否影响了国际投资和国际贸易——京都承诺期碳泄漏实证研究

Does Climate Policy Influence International Investment and Trade?:An Analysis on Carbon Leakage during Kyoto Commitment Period

本文引入衡量气候政策强弱的CCPI指数,并建立投资区位选择模型和贸易引力模型,实证检验京都第一承诺期内气候政策对国际投资和贸易的影响,以此衡量碳泄漏情况。投资区位选择模型的实证估计表明,气候政策差异并未对所谓碳泄漏行业的国际投资产生显著影响,市场和资源才是重要的影响因素;而贸易引力模型发现,气候政策不仅没有对碳泄漏行业的国际贸易产生负面影响,相反还有积极作用。因此,发达国家对碳泄漏的担心可能被夸大。

Using Climate Change Performance Index,this paper establishes a location choice model and a gravity model to explore the impacts of climate policy on international investment and trade during the first commitment period under Kyoto Protocol.The empirical analysis grounded on location choice model indicates that climate policy does not affect investment patterns of carbon-intensive sectors,while the market size and natural resources are major determinants.The results of gravity model suggest that climate policy has positive influences,instead of negative influences,on international trade flows in some carbon-intensive industries.Therefore,developed countries might exaggerate the problems of carbon leakage.