日本会成为贸易逆差国吗?——基于经常项目的跨期均衡分析

Will Japan Become a Trade Deficit Nation?:An Analysis based on Current Intertemporal Equilibrium

战后日本贸易长期顺差，它支撑了日本经济的顺利增长。2011年日本贸易收支却出现自1980年以来的首次贸易逆差。那么，日本的贸易逆差会否成为一种长期趋势，日本会成为贸易逆差国吗？作为世界第一大出口国和日本的重要贸易伙伴国，中国又会从中得到什么样的启示？这是本文关注的重点问题。针对该问题，我们以跨期迭代模型为理论基础，从日本的财政状况和人口特征角度入手，并利用1965～2013年的时间序列数据进行了实证检验。结果显示：第一，政府预算差额对日本经常项目差额有显著的正向作用；第二，少儿抚养比对日本经常项目差额有显著的正向作用，老年抚养比对日本经常项目差额有显著的负向作用，而且老年抚养比比少儿抚养比的作用更为明显；第三，日本财政赤字的不断攀升和少子老龄化的持续发展，带来了日本总储蓄率的不断下降和海外净资产的持续上升，这一降一升意味着日本的贸易逆差可能会成为一种趋势，日本有迈入逆差国的内在因素。本文的结论对于中国也有相当的借鉴意义。

Japan experienced long-term post-war trade surplus,which supported the smooth growth of the Japanese economy.But in2011 Japan appeared trade deficit the first time since 1980.So,will Japan's trade deficit become a long-term trend,will Japan become a trade deficit nation? As the world's largest exporter and Japan's important trading partners,can China get some inspiration from this? To solve this problem,from the perspective of the financial situation and demographic characteristics in Japan,the paper applies the overlapping generation model as the theoretical basis and use the time series data 1965 ~ 2013 to take an empirical test.The results showed that:first,the government budget balance in Japan has a significant positive effect on the current account balance.Second,the Young-Age Dependency Rate have significant positive effect on Japan's current account balance,the Old-Age Dependency Rate have significant negative effect on Japan's current account balance,and the Old-Age Dependency Rate is more effective than the Young-Age Dependency Rate.Third,Japan's rising fiscal deficit and the continuing development of low birthrate and aging lead to declining savings rate and rising total net assets in overseas.This means that Japan' s trade deficit could become a trend,and Japan has the internal factors of this trend.It also has considerable significance for China to draw some lessons.