我国人口老龄化趋势预测与结构分析——基于非参数自回归模型

The Prediction of China's Population Aging Trend and Analysis of the Structure:Based on Nonparametric Auto-Regression Model

针对经典的人口老龄化预测模型存在的方法本身误差和思路缺陷等局限,本文将非参数方法运用于我国人口老龄化问题研究中,结合核估计和局部线性估计的理论,建立了非参数自回归模型,与AR(1)模型预测结果进行对比,预测精度更高,则本文选择非参数自回归模型对我国人口老龄化趋势进行预测。最后,对我国人口老龄化进行年龄组别和城乡结构分析,针对我国从2004年开始出现人口老龄化"城乡倒置"的现状,从人口迁移等角度分析原因,并提出了我国人口老龄化的对策以及平衡城乡人口老龄化的政策建议。

Due to the traditional prediction models of population aging trend have bias of the method or drawbacks of the idea itself, this paper applied methods of nonparametric regression to analyze China＇s population aging problem, based on the theorem of Nadaraya-Watson kernel estimation and the local polynomial regression. We established the nonparametric auto-regression model,which has higher prediction precision compared with the time series AR（1） model,so chose this model to predict the population aging trend. At the same time,we analyzed the age and urban/rural structure,and the reasons of the current situation of “urban-rural inversion” that started on 2004 from the main perspective of population migration. Finally , put forward policy proposals on population aging problem,and gave advice on how to balance the development of population aging in urban and rural area.