养老保险与经济发展关系的实证分析——基于VAR模型的视角

Empirical Study on the Relationship between Endowment Insurance and Economic Development——Based on the Perspective of the VAR Model

养老保险与经济发展之间的相互关系表现为养老保险基金的收支水平与GDP水平的相关关系。通过构建VAR模型,运用脉冲响应和方差分解的分析方法对两者之间的影响关系和影响程度做深入考察。研究结果表明:养老保险基金的收支水平与GDP之间相互影响,但影响程度不同—GDP对养老保险基金的收、支水平影响程度基本相当,但对于收入影响更迅速、持续时间更长;养老保险基金收入水平对GDP影响程度及影响持续时间比养老保险基金支出的影响更高更持久。基于对养老保险基金与GDP相互影响关系的原因分析,为更好的发挥两者的互促效应,应将社会财富向养老保险领域倾斜,进一步优化养老保险基金投资策略、规范养老基金收支流程以及建立城乡一体的养老保险体系等。

The performance of the relationship between endowment insurance and economic development is the relationship between endowment insurance fund and GDP level. By building VAR model and using impulse response and variance decomposition analysis method, we do further investigation between the two of the impact relations and the influence degree. The research results show that endowment insurance fund and GDP influence each other but the degree is different：GDP has quite the same impact on the level of income and expense of endowment insurance fund, but effect to the income is faster and longer. The influence degree and the duration of endowment insurance fund income to GDP is higher than endowment insurance fund expense. Based on the analysis of the causes and in order to play the mutual effect better, social wealth to the endowment insurance should be tilted, endowment insurance fund investment strategies should be optimized, pension funds payment process should be standardized and the integral endowment insurance of urban and rural should be built.