我国政府性债务与金融体系安全的阈值效应——基于2001-2012年数据的实证研究

Threshold Effect of Government Debt to Financial Security in China——An Empirical Study based on the Data from 2001 to 2012

我国政府性债务无序扩张对金融体系安全产生何种影响是研究的热点问题。文章构建了包括宏观经济内部安全、宏观经济外部安全、金融市场运行安全3个模块,共计15个指标的金融体系安全指数,并引用2001-2012年的数据进行测度,进而采用数据模拟的方法建立政府性债务和金融体系安全指数的非线性模型。结果发现,我国政府性债务与金融体系安全之间存在阈值效应,时间节点在2010年,阈值为64.6960万亿元,自此以后,金融体系安全指数随政府性债务规模扩大呈现超线性上升趋势,我国政府性债务已经成为威胁金融体系安全的重大隐患,亟需建立有效的约束框架维护金融体系安全。

How the government debt affect financial security is an important issue. The paper establishes China＆#39;s financial security indexes system which comprises indexes from internal security of macroeconomic, external security macroeconomic, and safety of financial market, then this paper uses nonlinear regression model to value the influence of China＆#39;s government debt on financial security from 2001 to 2012. The results show that, there is a threshold effect between government debt and financial security, the threshold is 64.6960 in 2010. Namely, when the size of the government debt exceeds the threshold, it may reduce financial security. Government debt becomes a great hidden danger threatening financial security, the fundamental measure to deal with these problems is to establish an effective government debt restriction to maintain financial security.