祁县近50a气候变化特征及成因分析

Characteristics of Climate Change and its Climatic Attribution Analysis of Recent 50 Years in Qixian,Shanxi

利用1961—2010年祁县气温、降水地面气象观测资料,采用线性倾向估计、累积距平、Mann-Kendall检验、滑动t检验等方法,对祁县近50a来气候变化特征及趋势进行分析。结果表明,祁县年及春、夏、秋、冬季平均气温均呈上升趋势,气候倾向率分别为0.36,0.39,0.18,0.32,0.55℃/10 a,并且在1993,1997,1997,1995,1990年均发生了暖突变;近50 a来,祁县年降水量呈下降趋势,气候倾向率为-23.34 mm/10 a,1978年发生了减少突变,四季降水量变化中,夏季减幅最大,秋季次之,春、冬季不明显;气温与降水之间变化趋势呈负相关,除冬季外,均通过α=0.05显著相关水平检验,夏季最显著。祁县气候变暖幅度加快,与该县工业化快速发展进程及其影响有着直接的联系。

Based on the observational data from meteorological stations in Qianxian from 1961 to 2010, the characteristics of climate change and its tendency were analyzed using the methods of a linear trend analysis, a moving average and a wavelet analysis. The results indicated that the annual average air temperature and seasonal air temperature were in the increasing trends, and their tendency rates were 0.36,0.39,0.18,0.32 and 0.55 ℃/decade, and there were the warm abrupt changes in the 1993s for annual average air temperature. For the seasonal air temperature, the warm abrupt changes in spring, autumn, summer and winter occurred in1997s, 1997s, 1995s and 1990s. Precipitation were on the declining curve in recent years, with a tendency rate of -23.34 mm/decade, and the decreasing abrupt changes occurred in 1978. For the seasonal precipitation, decreasing trend was the biggest in summer, autumn followed, and spring and winter was not so significant. By comparison of change in air temperature and precipitation trends, it has been concluded that there were negative correlation （α=0.05）, besides winter, which the response of these variables to the climate change was the most significant in summer. The climate warming in Qixian were connected with rapid development of industrialization.