基于SD的流域环境经济协调发展模拟分析

Simulative Analysis of Coordinated Development of Environment and Economy in a Watershed Based on System Dynamics

针对河南省淮河流域"十一五"期间呈现出的环境保护与经济发展的失调状态,为解决环境容量资源稀缺与流域经济发展需求间的矛盾,构建环境经济复合系统协调发展系统动力学模型(SD),模型由社会、经济、资源、环境4个子系统构成。调控模型中具有代表性的决策因子,如再用水回用率、重点排污行业产值增长率等,通过模型的正负反馈进行因果关系分析,并依据流域现状发展趋势和优化发展方向分别设计不同的情景,对比分析得出流域最优发展方案。并通过对不同发展情景的分析和比较,提出河南省淮河流域优化产业结构、优化人口城乡布局、优化城镇污水处理厂能力、优化工业污染结构的政策建议,为河南省淮河流域的规划、治理提供科学的分析工具和有意义的参考。

To deal with the contradiction between environmental protection and economic development, which was intensified during the period of llth Five-Year Plan, particularly regarding the scarcity of environmental capacity that could hardly meet the demand of sustainable economic development of Huaihe Riverbasin in Henan Province, a model of system dynamics （SD） for river-basin coordinated development was constructed. The SD was Comprised of several sub-systems in which the factors including society, economy, water resource and environment of the riverbasin in Henan Province were taken into consideration. When regulating the decision factors in the model, the wastewater reuse rate and the production growth rate of major pollution industrial plants were underlined; and through analyzing the causality by positive and negative feedback of the model, three different scenarios of socio-economic development were designed in view of the development trend and some healthier development modes in the river basin. Eventually, the optimized scenario was determined for healthy and coordinated development in the river-basin. Furthermore, suggestions for future sustainable development were made emphasizing the optimization of industrial structure and the population distribution in the urban and rural areas, strengthening the capacity of municipal wastewater treatment in the cities and towns, and readjusting structure of the pollution industries.