中国的金融周期波动及其宏观经济效应的时变特征研究被引量：126

Financial Cycle Fluctuation and Its Macroeconomic Effect in China

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摘要本文利用主成分分析方法计算中国的金融形势指数,以此考察中国金融周期的波动特征,并进一步运用时变参数向量自回归模型分析中国金融周期波动对宏观经济的时变影响及其非对称性特征。研究结果表明,中国金融周期波动先行于宏观经济景气波动,周期长度大致为3年,且存在长扩张短收缩的非对称性特征;金融冲击的"产出效应"不如"价格效应"明显,金融形势好转所产生的加速效应比金融形势恶化所带来的负面影响更为显著。 This paper calculates the financial conditions index （FCI） in China by principal component analysis and investigated the fluctuation characteristics of China＇s financial cycle. Furthermore, it studies the influence of the financial cycle on inflation and output gap based on the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model. The results show that, the FCI fluctuates prior to macroeconomic fluctuation, and there is an approximately 3-years short cycle in financial fluctuation which has the asymmetric characteristic with long-term expansion and short-term contraction. The ＂price effect＂ of financial fluctuation is more obvious than ＂out- put effect＂ of that, and the acceleration effect of improvement of the financial situation on inflation and economic fluctuation is more obvious than the negative effects of the deterioration of the financial situation.

作者邓创徐曼

机构地区吉林大学数量经济研究中心吉林大学商学院

出处《数量经济技术经济研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2014年第9期75-91,共17页 Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基金国家社科青年基金项目"我国现阶段潜在产出及产出缺口变动特征研究"(11CJL012) 教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(13JJD790011)的资助

关键词金融周期通货膨胀产出缺口金融状况指数 TVP-VAR模型 Financial Cycle Inflation Output Gap Financial Conditions In- dex TVP-VAR Model

分类号 F224.0 [经济管理—国民经济]

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