胶州湾随机动力条件下的船舶溢油污染概率研究

Study on pollution probability of ship oil spill at stochastic dynamic condition in Jiaozhou Bay

海上船舶溢油,大多持续时间较短,事故发生后,溢油输移扩散受海洋水动力场和风场的影响很大.因此,研究溢油对海洋环境的影响,从概率统计的角度研究更具有实际意义.本文以船舶交通事故概率较高的胶州湾为研究海域,依据青岛港海域水上交通事故空间分布统计数据,在基于油粒子追踪法建立胶州湾溢油漂移扩散模型的基础上,考虑随机风场和流场的组合动力条件,统计溢油抵达岸线和敏感保护目标的概率.结果表明,事故高发区溢油,胶州湾岸线污染概率较大的为大港、黄岛油港、团岛至大麦岛联线,海洋保护目标中青岛文昌鱼海洋保护区和青岛海滨风景旅游休闲娱乐区受污染的概率较大,分别达到40%和50%.

Oil transport and diffusion are greatly affected by marine fields of hydrodynamic and wind after the accident, because most of ship oil spills are of short duration. Therefore, it has more practical significance to discuss the impact of oil spill on marine environment in views of probability and statistics. In this paper, according to statistic data of vessel traffic accidents near Qingdao Port, Jiaozhou Bay, where probability of vessel traffic accidents are high, was selected for case study. An oil spill drift-diffusion model of Jiaozhou Bay was established based on oil particle tracking method, with the combination of stochastic wind field and flow field. Probabilities of cases that oil spill arrived at the coast and sensitive protection targets were recorded finally. The results showed that when oil spill happened at high incidence of traffic accidents, places with larger pollution probability would be in the coastlines of Jiaozhou Bay, included Dagang Harbor, Huangdao Island Oil Port, Tuandao Island and Damaidao Island. Among marine protection targets, Qingdao amphioxus marine protected area and Qingdao seaside scenic tourism and recreational areas have higher probabilities of 40% and 50% being polluted, respectively.