1971—2010年重庆蔬菜气候生产潜力特征分析

Characteristics of climatic potential productivity of vegetables from 1971 to 2010 in Chongqing

利用1971—2010年重庆地区34个地面气象站日值数据集,结合周广胜气候生产潜力模型,采用线性回归、MannKendal突变、经验正交函数(EOF)等方法分析重庆地区蔬菜气候生产潜力。结果表明:重庆地区年平均蔬菜生产力呈下降趋势,并存在明显的突变,主要是由于降水量的减少;重庆市蔬菜气候生产潜力空间分布呈现渝东南、渝东北偏西地区偏高的特点,局地差异也较明显。当重庆气候处于暖湿型气候时对蔬菜的生长最为有利。

Based on a daily meteorological data set at 34 ground weather stations from 1971 to 2010 in Chongqing, the climatic potential productivity of vegetables was anlayzed by methods of a Mann-Kendall and an empirical orthogonal function （EOF）combining a climatic potential productivity model developed by Zhou Guangsheng.The results indicate that the mean annual climatic potential productivity of vegetables is in a decreasing trend and has a significant abrupt change because of decreasing precipitation.The climatic potential productivity of vegetables is higher in the southeast and west-northeast of Chongqing.The climatic potential productivity has obvious local differences.The warm and wet climate is favourable to the growth of vegetables in Chongqing.