大国战略关系视角下的中国与非洲——中非关系的结构性缺陷与演化趋势

China and Africa amid Strategic Relations between Great Powers——The Structural Defects and Evolution Trend of Sino-African Relations

决定大国在非洲关系走势及中国在非洲国际处境演化的因素,除了各国政府的主观意愿、战略策略和实际举措之外,最终起决定性作用的仍将是一国的综合实力。在可以预见的相当长一段时期内,大国在非洲的实力对比仍将维系"西强我弱"格局,大国强化军事布局或将使中国在非战略空间受到挤压,中国在非洲活动的国际阻力存在着不降反升的风险。影响大国及中国在非洲国际处境走势的因素中,大国战略关系的走势、特别是中美战略关系的演化将起至关重要的作用。从根本上说,大国在非洲关系的变化是随着中国的快速崛起所引发的大国与非洲关系及大国战略关系的变化而变化的。

In the final analysis, the factor determining the development of rdations between major powers over Afkica and the evolution of China＇s situation in Africa is the comprehensive national strength, which is more important than other factors such as the subjective intention, strategies and practical measures. In the near fhture, the strength contrast in Africa will still maintain a ＂western advantage＂ pattern, expanded military deployment in Africa by great powers may reduce China＇s strategic space, and China still fhces the risk of increased international resistance against its Africa activities. Among the factors influencing the evolution of the situation of great powers and China in Africa, trend in the strategic relations between major powers, especially the development of the Sino- US strategic relationship, will play a crucial role. In fact, changes in the relations between great powers over Africa take place along with the changes in the relations between Africa and great powers and in the strategic relations among great powers, which are caused by the rapid rise of China.