预先承诺、肥尾效应和监管范式——基于Agent的互联网金融监管仿真研究

Pre-Commitment,Fat Tail and Regulatory Paradigm:Simulations of Internet Finance Supervisions with a Model Based on Agent

互联网金融近年来发展迅速,但在我国尚缺乏明确的规范,亟需通过适度监管引导其明确权利与义务,同时兼顾风险与收益,平衡创新与审慎的关系。本文引入预先承诺制监管,采用了计算经济学研究方法论,构建了基于Agent的互联网金融监管仿真模型,模拟了收益与风险导向、动态与持续、同质和异质的监管范式,在分析金融市场特征性事实"肥尾效应"和判定宏观性指标的基础上,论证了实施监管的最佳选择,并提出以坚持前瞻指引、宏观审慎、激励相容和包容增长应作为制定互联网金融监管政策的基本出发点和价值取向。

Internet Finance has developed rapidly in recent years. At present, it lacks clear regulations inChina, and needs proper supervisions to specify rights and obligations, match risks and profits, and balanceinnovations and prudence. This paper introduces the pre-commitment supervision, constructs a regulationsimulation model based on Agent using the methodology of Computational Economics, and simulates the effectsof income and risk oriented, dynamic and continuous, homogeneous and heterogeneous regulatory paradigms.Based on the analysis of the fat tail characteristic in financial market and macro indicators determinations, wediscuss the best supervisory choices, finally, this paper points out that adhering to forward guidance, macroprudential, incentive compatibility and inclusive growth should be the basic starting point and value orientation ofthe formulations of Internet finance regulatory policy