国家金融安全动态监测分析(1992-2012年)

Analysis on Dynamic Monitoring of National Financial Security(1992-2012)

本文从金融安全条件与金融安全能力两大维度构建了国家金融安全监测指标体系,采用熵值法调整的AHP法测算了各指标权重,在确定指标警限区间与安全等级评定基础上,通过功效系统法与线性综合加权法,对我国1992-2012年国家金融安全程度进行了动态定量监测分析,并进行了动态评价与原因解读。结果发现:(1)1992-2012年国家金融安全程度表现出局部波动但整体上不断提升的发展态势,从1992年的中度不安全(50.2分),到2001年的低度不安全(63.5分),再到2012年的中高度安全(77.7分);(2)1992-2012年来我国金融安全程度可划分为两个明显阶段:1992-2000年为封闭探索型金融安全阶段,2001-2012年为加速发展型金融安全阶段;(3)2001-2012年国家金融安全程度不断提升主要原因包括:对外债务偿还能力不断增强,短期国际资本对我国金融市场冲击降低,银行机构安全性大幅提升,金融体制建设能力不断提升。因此,要发挥科技创新与资源效率对中长期经济增长的引领作用,资本账户稳步有序放开,国有大型银行的市场化改革与完善金融市场化体制法规以提升我国中长期金融安全能力。

This paper set up China＇s national financial security monitoring indicator system from the two dimensions of financial security conditions and financial security capabilities, and measured the monitoring indictor weights with AHP method adjusted by Entropy method. On the basis of indentifying the safety intervals and security level, the national financial security degree had been monitored and analyzed quantitatively and comprehensively from 1992 to 2011 with efficacy coefficient method and the linear-weighted summation method. Our national financial security degree had been dynamically evaluated and interpreted. The empirical studies showed that ： （ 1 ） the security level had been rising for most of the time with occasional fluctuations between 1992 and 2012, from moderately low security level in 1992 （50.2 scores） to low security level in 2001 （63.5 scores）, and to moderately high security level in 2012 （77.7 scores） ; （2） China＇s national financial secu- rity degree could be divided to two distinct phases of closed exploration （1992-2000） and accelerated development （2001- 2012）; （3） the main factors which affected and promoted the national financial security degree included the continuously enhanced external debt repayment capacity, the reduced impact from short-term international capital, the improved security level of banking institutions and the steady construction of financial system.