云南省对外贸易与碳排放关系的实证研究

An Empirical Research on the Relationship of Yunnan Export Trade and Carbon Emissions

应用计量分析方法，选取云南省1980—2012年共33年的时间序列数据进行分析，以检验云南省出口贸易与碳排放之间的关系。检验结果显示：云南省出口贸易与碳排放之间存在长期均衡关系，出口贸易每增加1％，导致碳排放增加0．44％，出口贸易是碳排放的granger原因。云南省出口贸易的增长正以牺牲环境为代价，因此应该构建对外贸易绿色结构体系，这样才能实现贸易与经济的可持续发展。

This paper analyzes the linkage between Yunnan export trade and carbon emission by applying the methods of econometric. Based on the time series data from 1980 -2012, it measures the influence of export trade on carbon emission. The conclusions are： there is a long - term equilibrium relationship between Yunnan export trade and carbon emission, and a 1% increase in export trade results in carbon emission by up to 0. 44%, and export trade is the Granger cause of carbon emission. In view of this, a green structure system of export trade should be built so as to realize the sustainable development of trade and economy.