日本对东亚国家贸易依赖度的变动轨迹分析

The Analysis on the Changing Trajectory of Japan's Trade Dependence on East Asian Countries

在过去20多年间,日本与东亚国家的货物贸易规模及其所占比重不断扩大,初级产品和制成品贸易的依赖度均增强,但制成品产业内贸易指数的变动不稳定且渐呈下降之势,日本与东亚国家的服务贸易的依赖度很低。经济发展的不平衡、初级产品价格的上涨、经济危机、国际生产网络和东亚服务业发展的相对滞后等,是影响日本对东亚国家贸易依赖度变化的主要原因。基于此考量,日本对东亚国家的贸易依赖度仍有提高的潜力和必要性。

Over the past 20 years, the scale and the proportion of commodity trade between Japan and East Asian countries have constantly expanded. The trade dependence of primary products and manufactured goods has increased, but the change of intra - industry trade index of manufactured goods has been unstable and gradually declined. The dependence of service trade between Japan and East Asian countries is very low. The imbalance of the economic development, the increase in commodity prices, the economic crisis, the international production networks and the relatively delayed service industry are the main factors having impact on the change on Japan＇s trade dependence on East Asian countries. Based on the analysis, there has been still great potential and necessities to further improve the trade dependence of Japan on East Asian countries.