中国城市居民旅游需求函数的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Tourism Demand Function of Chinese Citizens

旅游需求问题是旅游研究的核心问题之一，中国居民旅游需求函数是旅游需求问题研究的基础，旅行成本模型广泛地被用于估计居民旅游需求函数。文章基于停留时间内生的旅行成本模型，在考虑游客动态出游行为的情形下，使用中国39个城市2000--2007年间国内旅游抽样调查数据，采用广义矩估计方法对中国居民旅游需求函数进行了估计。研究表明，旅行成本、时间成本和居民收入是影响居民旅游需求的关键因素；旅游需求收入弹性的绝对值大于旅行成本弹性的绝对值，城市旅游产业发展的居民收入激励政策较之于成本竞争策略更有效；旅游需求的旅行成本弹性和时间成本弹性差异显著，减少旅行成本政策较之于缩短旅行时间政策更能提高城市的旅游收入；旅游需求和停留时间的影响因素存在异同，扩大旅游需求和延长停留时间的选择面临“两难”，但也可“两顾”。

Tourism demand is one of the two cutting-edge issues of tourism research. More and more tourism economists have devoted efforts to study tourism demand. In the field of natural resource and environmental studies, travel cost model is considered as one of the best ways to estimate the tourism demand. In addition to a review on the research objects and estimation technologies of travel cost models, we also investigated the factors of tourism demand and put forward most of the important variables determining the tourism demand, mainly including the travel cost, on-site time and resident income. This paper tries to estimate the tourism demand function of Chinese citizens with GMM （Generalized Method of Moments） using the panel data collected through a domestic tourism survey of Chinese citizens from 2000 to 2007. In the theoretical model, endogenous on-site time was introduced and the tourism demand function was defined. In the empirical study, we firstly regressed on the nights to test the endogenous property of on-site time through the two-step method offered by McConnell （1992） and then estimated the tourism demand function using a travel cost model with on- site time endogenous. Meanwhile, the lag terms of the visit was also tested for analyzing the dynamic travel decisions of individuals when all the important variables selected were controlled. Besides, robustness checks were also completed by comparing the estimations of our present study with some other relevant studies done in the 2000s. The results of this paper show that： firstly, travel cost, opportunity cost and resident income were the three main factors of tourism demand, both the travel cost and opportunity cost had a negative impact on the tourism demand while the resident income had a significantly positive influence on the visit; secondly, the absolute value of demand-income elasticity was less than 1 but larger than the demand-travel cost elasticity, which indicates that the income policy focusing on improving the resident＇ s income was empirically more effective than the cost one which aimed to reduce the total cost including both the travel cost and opportunity cost; thirdly, there was a large gap between the two kinds of the cost elasticity （travel cost and opportunity cost）, so it is a better way to raise the tourism income of a city by reducing the travel cost rather than shortening the travel time; and lastly, different factors had different impacts on visit and on-site time. Therefore, it is difficult to get the twin goals regarding high travel rate and long on-site time at the same time but it is still possible by controlling some specific factors, like the opportunity cost of onsite time. Meanwhile, it might be a better way to reform on the leave system in China, such as carrying out the Announcement of the State Council on the Regulations of Paid Annual Leave of Employees.