我国农村金融发展与农民收入增长的实证研究

An Empirical Study of China's Rural Financial Development and Farmer's Income Growth

利用1990—2009年我国农村金融发展的统计数据,运用多元线性回归模型实证分析农村金融发展规模、效率、结构与农村金融资源分布密度对农民收入增长的影响。结果显示,只有农村金融机构贷存比率的提高和每万人农村金融机构从业人员数量的增加对农民收入的增长有显著的促进作用,而农村存款规模扩大、乡镇企业贷款比率的提高以及每万人农村金融机构拥有量的增加,对农民收入水平的提高并没有表现出显著的促进作用。为了使我国农村金融"增量式"改革的这项新政能真正让农民和低收入人群受益,本轮增量改革必须稳中求进,其新型金融机构数量切忌盲目扩张,并逐步从国家外生主导模式向民间内生成长模式转变,以提高农村金融发展对农民收入增长的贡献。

By making use of the statistical data of China＇s rural financial development from 1990 to 2009 and employing the multiple linear regression model, this paper conducts an empirical analysis of the influence of the scale, efficiency and structure of rural financial development and the distribu- tion density of rural financial resources on the increase of farmers＇ income. The results show that only the increase of loan-to-deposit ratio of rural financial institutions and the increase of the number of practitioners in rural financial institutions per ten thousand people can play a significant role in promoting the increase of farmers＇ income, while the expansion of rural deposit scale, the improvement of township enterprises＇ loan ratio and the increase of number of rural financial institutions per ten thousand people do not play a significant role in promoting the growth of farmers＇ income. Therefore, this paper proposes that in order to really benefit farmers and low-income groups from the new policy of incremental reform of China＇s rural finance, this round of incremental reform must advance steadily, the number of new financial institutions should not expand blindly, and the national exogenous leading mode should be gradually transformed into the private endogenous growth mode, so as to improve the contribution of the rural financial development to the farmers＇ income growth.