跨组织项目的合作伙伴关系风险仿真研究——以民机供应链为例

ABMS of Civil Aircraft Partnership Risk Management:Taking Civil Aircraft Supply Chain as an Example

作为典型的跨组织项目,大飞机项目涉及多个供应商,并面临诸多风险。为了准确描绘复杂系统的风险管理过程,与目前普遍采用的单纯数学、解析风险模型的技术视角不同,本文利用智能体仿真建模来研究民机供应链风险沟通过程及风险沟通影响因素对风险管理绩效的影响,仿真结果表明:1)民机制造商在力量格局中处于劣势状态的情况下,在供应链合作伙伴间增加沟通次数能够降低整个项目周期的风险影响;2)在民机制造商的风险控制能力一定的条件下,适当规模的供应链合作伙伴关系能够降低项目风险。最后,文章提出了管理建议。

As a typical cross-organizational project involving multiple vendors,large aircraft project is faced with numerous risks.Suitable risk management strategies are required to be established based on the past experience and existing risk man-agement methods.Different from mathematical analyzing model,Agent-based Modeling is applied to simulate performance of risk management effected by risk communication processes as well as the risk communication effectors.The simulation re-sults show that：1）At a disadvantage in the power equation,the risk of the entire project cycle can be lowered by increasing the communication between supply chain partners;2）Under certain ability of risk control,project risks can be reduced by appropriate size of supply chain partnership.At last,management recommendations are put forward.