气候变化情景下青藏工程走廊融沉灾害风险性区划研究

Risk division of thaw settlement hazard along Qinghai-Tibet Engineering Corridor under climate change

气候变暖会加剧青藏工程走廊多年冻土区融沉灾害的发生,威胁重大工程的安全运营.选取冻土体积含冰量和活动层厚度变化量为指标,借助ArcGIS软件,采用融沉指数模型对青藏工程走廊融沉灾害做出了区划.结果表明:在未来50 a,青藏工程走廊内融沉灾害在A1B和A2情景下主要为中高风险性,在B1情景下主要为中低风险性.高风险区主要分布在楚玛尔河高平原、五道梁和开心岭等高温高含冰量冻土区.

Climate warming could aggravate the frequency of thaw settlement hazards along the Qinghai-Tibet Engineering Corridor （QTEC）, and bring negative impacts on the infrastructures. In this paper, the volumetric ice content and the change of active-layer thickness are taken as indexes and applied to the thaw settlement model supported by ArcGIS software to zone the thaw-settlement hazards along QTEC. The results show that in the next 50 years the thaw settlement hazards along QTEC will be moderate and high-risk categories under A1B and A2 scenarios, but low and moderate risk categories under B1 scenario. High-risk areas mainly distribute in warm and ice-rich permafrost regions, such as Chumarhe high nlain. Wudaoliang and Kaixinling regions.