经济发展水平、产业结构与环境污染——基于江西省的实证分析

Level of Economic Development,Industrial Structure and Environmental Pollution:An Empirical Analysis of Jiangxi Province

运用主成分分析方法,构造了反映环境污染程度的环境污染综合指数。指数表明,江西省整体环境污染状况在1990-1997年间保持稳定,1998年之后则呈现逐年加重的趋势。进一步分析了江西省经济发展水平、产业结构变化与环境污染之间的关系,结果表明,江西省污染综合指数与人均GDP之间呈现"正N型"曲线关系,工业增加值占GDP比重和重工业产值占工业总产值比重与环境污染综合指数之间具有显著的正相关关系,而第三产业比重的变化对环境污染的影响并不显著,贸易开放则加剧了江西省的环境污染,工业污染治理投资并没有显著地改善江西省环境污染状况。

By applying the principal component analytical method, this paper constructs a set of environmental pollution index to reflect the degree of environmental pollution. This index shows that the overall environmental pollution situation in Jiangxi province remained stable between 1990 and 1997, after 1998, however, it has the trend of increasingly worsening year by year. Then this paper makes a further analysis of the relationship between the level of economic development in Jiangxi province, the industrial structure changes and the environmental pollution. The results show that there exists a ＂positive N-type＂ curve relationship between the comprehensive pollution index of Jiangxi province and per capita GDP. There is a significant positive correlation between the industrial added value to GDP and the proportion of heavy industry output value to the total industrial output value and the environmental pollution comprehensive index. While the change of proportion of the tertiary industry has no significant impact on the environmental pollution, the trade openness has intensified the environmental pollution in Jiangxi, and the investment in the industrial pollution regulation has not significantly improved the environmental pollution situation in Jiangxi province.