模型寿命表在期望寿命计算中的应用

Application of Model Life Table in Calculation of Life Expectancy

目的应用模型寿命表修正中国2010年六普年龄别死亡率,探讨合适的死亡模式计算期望寿命。方法分别用Coale-Demeny和联合国发展中国家两类模型寿命表9种死亡模式修正六普年龄别死亡率,同时用漏报率的方法调整六普年龄别死亡率;计算年龄别死亡率对数值的均方根误差(RMSE)作为死亡模式一致性的拟合指标,各选两类模型中RMSE最小的死亡模式计算期望寿命e0。本文使用联合国编制的MORTPAK 4.0软件进行数据分析。结果RMSE的计算结果显示Coale-Demeny模型中男性West死亡模式、女性East死亡模式和联合国模型中男女性Far Eastern死亡模式的RMSE值最小;用最小RMSE的死亡模式计算的婴儿死亡率(IMR)为男性West(18.54‰)、女性East(16.05‰)、以及Far Eastern(男性17.61‰,女性15.39‰)与漏报调整结果(男性16.85‰,女性17.69‰)比较接近;两类模型寿命表计算的男女性年龄别死亡率曲线与漏报调整年龄别死亡率曲线也较为相似;中国2010年男性期望寿命e0按West、Far Eastern死亡模式计算与漏报调整计算的结果较为接近分别为72.47岁、71.09岁和72.46岁;女性按East、Far Eastern死亡模式计算与漏报调整计算的结果亦较为接近分别为78.15岁、78.8岁和77.41岁。结论对于死亡资料不完整的国家或地区,用模型寿命表的方法修正年龄别死亡率后可以获得较为准确的期望寿命。

Objective To explore appropriate death pattern on calculation of life expectancy,model life table is used to revise age-specific mortality rates from Chinese 6＇h national population census. Methods Revised age-specific mortality rates under 9 death patterns from Coale-Demeny model and United Nation model for developing countries respectively. We also adjus- ted 6^th census death data by underreporting rate. Chose Root-Mean-SquareError （RMSE） of logarithmic death rates as the fitting index of death patterns consistency. Figured out life expectancy under death pattern that had the minimum RMSE in each model. Used the MORTPAK4.0 software which designed by United Nation for data analysis. Results The West pattern for male and the East pattern for female had the minimum RMSE among Coale-Demeny model ; the Far Eastern pattern for both sexes had the minimum RMSE among Union Nation model. The infant mortality rate （IMR） revised by model life tables were respectively 18.54%0 （ West, male）, 16.05%o （ East, female） and 17.61%o （ Far Eastern, male ）, 15.39%0 （ Far Eastern, female ）. These re- sults were close to the IMR adjusted by underreporting rate which were 16. 85%0 （male） and 17.69%0 （female）. The age-specif- ic mortality rates curve was relatively similar between results revised by two model life table and adjusted by underreporting rate. The life expectancy revised by West, Far Eastern death pattern and adjusted by underreporting rate were respectively 72.47, 71.09 and 72.46 for male,78. 15,78.8 and 77. 41 for female. Conclusion In country or region where have incomplete death data, applying model life table to revise age-specific mortality rates can obtain relatively accurate life expectancy.