基于多种数学模型下我国联合收割机保有量的预测

Prediction of a Variety of Mathematical Models of Combine Harvester Based on Market Demand

联合收割机保有量的预测是一个复杂的非线型系统,三次多项式时间序列模型、灰色预测的GM(1,1)模型和BP神经网络模型对发展变化具有增长性和波动性以及信息不完备的复杂经济系统具有一定的实用性。为此,利用我国联合收割机保有量的历史数据,综合使用这3种模型进行均值预测,使生产联合收割机的厂家在能够把握市场的需求量、不至于盲目生产及造成不必要的损失同时,可以为政府预测新的经济前景、制定新的生产计划提供重要参考。

Combine the market demand forecast is a complex nonlinear system,the grey prediction GM（ 1,1） model, BP neural network model and three polynomial time series model with the growth and volatility and incomplete information of complex economic system has certain practicability for development. Historical data using combine harvesters in China have weight,were predicted by the three models,so that the production of combine harvester manufacturer can grasp the market demand,not blind production,resulting in unnecessary losses andcan provide important reference to develop new production plan for the government to forecast economic prospects.