基于1985—2010年历史资料的山东省台风灾害风险评估

The Risk Assessment of Disasters Induced by Typhoons in Shandong Province Based on Historical Data During 1985—2000

基于对1985—2010年间的多种历史资料和数据分析,对山东省成灾台风进行了灾害风险评估。为减少不同时期社会经济发展水平对灾害损失评估结果的影响,用标准化方法分析评估了各年的灾害损失。采用模糊数学的方法建立了综合定量指标,利用所建立的指标综合地考察了台风灾害的影响。在分析各致灾因子的作用时,将台风灾情与人文、社会要素相结合,并利用地理信息系统(GIS)平台进行了综合分析。评估结果表明,标准化的台风灾害损失情况呈逐年下降趋势,并呈现地域差异,具有明显的时空分布特征。本文研究结果可望为山东省沿海地区台风灾害的防灾减灾工作提供参考。

In the present paper, the risk assessment of disasters induced by typhoons in Shandong Province has been carried out on the basis of the analyses to the historical data during 1985-2010. In order to reduce the impact of the social and economical development status on the evaluation results in various periods, the normalized evaluation method were used to analyze the annual typhoon-induced damage in the concerned period. The quantitative comprehensive index is proposed with fuzzy mathematics, and the effect of typhoon-induced disasters is systematically investigated with the proposed index. In the analyses to the various hazard factors, the damage induced by typhoon is combined with human and social factors, and further is comprehensively analyzed on the basis of a GIS platform. The assessment results indicate that the normalized damage induced by typhoon presents the downward trend year by year and the regional differences with the significant temporal-spatial characteristics. The results of the present study are expected to be beneficial to the disaster prevention and mitigation in coastal regions of Shandong Province.