技术进步偏向、周期波动分解与产业结构分析

Biased Technical Change,Business Cycle Decomposition and Industrial Structure

在测度要素偏向型技术进步的基础上,对全国及三次产业的产出增长率进行要素分解,进而分析产业结构变动对经济周期波动的影响。结果表明:20世纪90年代以来,全国和三次产业的要素贡献率的波动趋于缓和,这说明在中国经济发展模式趋于稳定的同时,各要素服务经济发展的方式也趋于稳定;另外,随着经济中第三产业比重的提高,第三产业的各要素波动对全国经济周期波动的影响日益增强,因此第三产业将会是解决收入分配不均及促进技术进步等诸多全国性经济问题的重要着手点。

Based on measurements of factor biased technical change,this paper decomposes the whole country and the three industries’ output grow th,and analyzes the influence of the industrial structure on business cycle fluctuation. The results show that： since the 1990s,the volatilities of the contribution rate of factors of the w hole country and the three industries have appeared to be subsiding,w hich indicates that the w ay factors serve the economy is more stable along w ith economic developing model in China tending to be more stable. The volatilities of the factors of the tertiary industry show increasing effect on business cycle fluctuation along w ith the increasing proportion of the tertiary industry in the economy. Therefore,the tertiary industry w ill be a key point of solving nationw ide economic problems such as income distribution and technical progress.