基于三角模糊数的煤矿重大危险源风险分析

A risk analysis for major hazard sources in coal mines based on fuzzy number

为了系统量化分析煤矿重大危险源风险程度,针对现有煤矿重大危险源风险评估方法的不足,结合风险特征的多维性,提出了包含风险因素重要度、风险发生可能性、风险后果三个参数的三维风险分析模型。在煤矿重大危险源影响因素相关研究的基础上,以三类危险源为理论基础,构建煤矿重大危险源风险分析层次结构模型。考虑风险影响因素难以精确量化的问题,采用模糊层次分析法确定各层指标权重,并以三角模糊数描述风险概率和风险后果。最后,通过一个实例验证该方法的有效性和准确性。结果表明,三类危险源中,第三类危险源对系统风险影响最大,二类和一类危险源次之。

The purpose of this paper is to make a systematic and quantitative risk analysis for major hazard sources in coal mines .According to the shortage of present risk assessment method and multidimensional risk characteristics ,a three dimensional risk model is proposed .It contains three parameters ,namely ,risk index ,risk likelihood and risk severity .Hierarchy model is introduced to structure factors influencing hazard sources based relative research on risk factors about it .Considering the uncertainty and subjectivity in risk assessment ,the fuzzy theory is used to determine the risk parameters . Finally ,an illustrative example on roof fall hazards risk assessment of a certain coal is used to demonstrate the proposed model .The result shows that in the three kinds of hazard sources ,the most influential one is the third ,then comes the second and first .