电网新设备启动方案风险评价方法

Risk assessment method of schemes for equipping new devices for service in electric power grid

目前,对电网新设备启动方案的风险评价尚没有定量的分析方法。通过研究两种新设备启动方案中可能影响电网安全运行的各环节,用故障树分析方法,建立了新设备启动方案的故障树模型。运用概率性分析,得出两种方案的实施对电网运行的风险概率,并对风险概率进行了比较,提出了方案设计时的选择依据。实际案例证明了该方法的有效性。

There is no research on the quantitative risk assessment of schemes for equipping new devices for service by now. This paper introduced two schemes of equipping brand new primary devices for service. By researching the events of the two schemes, which may hazard the safety operation of electric grid, fault tree analysis method is used to construct the fault tree of the two schemes respectively. Based on probability analysis of all the events, this paper deduces the risk probability of each scheme. By comparing the result, some general suggestions are given to help decide which scheme is better according to practical conditions. Using the described method, we successfully complete the scheme design of a new sub-station equipping for service.