摘要
随着风力发电的快速发展,并且风力发电系统的出力与风电场风速存在着的特殊关系,使得对风电场的风速实现较准确的预测已逐步成为研究的热点。该文先提出一种简单的的风速预测方法,即将指数平滑法应用到风速预测,并验证了指数平滑法预测风速的可行性。此外,为了提高预测精度,还提出了两种新的组合预测的方法,即基于指数平滑和灰色模型(GM)的组合预测方法、基于自回归滑动平均(ARMA)模型和灰色模型的组合预测方法。实例计算结果表明,组合预测方法比单独的用一种方法的预测效果要好,尤其是基于自回归滑动平均模型和灰色模型的组合预测方法更具有优势。
With the rapid development of wind power,to achieve more accurate predictions of wind speed on wind farm has gradually become a hot research topic because of special relationship between output of wind pow prediction method has been presented in this paper,in which the exponential smoothing method is introduced into wind speed prediction, and then the feasibility of exponential smoothing method has been verified. In addition, in order to improve the prediction accuracy, two kinds of combination forecast methods are proposed. One is based on combination of exponential smoothing method and gray model, and the other combination forecasting method is based on auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) model and grey-model. Calculation examples show that the prediction effect of combined forecasting method is better than a single method, especially the combination of auto-regressive moving average model and grey-model.
出处
《可再生能源》
CAS
北大核心
2014年第8期1134-1139,共6页
Renewable Energy Resources
基金
国家"863"高技术基金项目(2012AA050213)
国家自然科学基金项目(51077090)
国网重庆市电力公司电力科学研究院规划评审中心KJ〔2013〕94号项目资助
关键词
短期风速
风力发电
指数平滑法
灰色模型
ARMA模型
组合预测
short-term wind speed
wind power
exponential smoothing method
grey-model
ARMA model
combined forecasting