利率市场化改革与经济增长——基于54个国家的实证研究

The Liberalization Reform of Interest Rate and Economic Growth ——An Empirical Study of 54 Countries

本文基于54个国家1970～2000年的有关数据,建立面板回归模型进行分析。研究发现,进行利率市场化改革对经济增长有明显的影响;利率市场化改革对于发展中国家的影响要大于对发达国家的影响;对于发达国家经济增长率的影响趋于积极,对于发展中国家经济增长率的影响则有正有负,整体综合动向不十分明晰。利率市场化改革与维持经济增长率稳定可能存在冲突。因此,对于中国而言,可以考虑通过给银行等金融机构预留政策准备期、注重实体经济的发展和承受状况、防范改革中止带来的相应冲突等措施来促进利率市场化改革对经济增长的正向影响。

Based on the data of 54 countries during 1970～2000, this paper establishes a panel regression model. It is found that the liberalization reform of interest rate has significant impacts on economic growth; the impacts on developing countries are greater than those on developed countries; the impacts on developed countries are positive, but the impacts on developing countries are positive or negative and the overall trend is not very clear. Therefore, China may take measures to promote the positive impacts of the liberalization reform of interest rate on economic growth, such as admitting preparation time for banks and other financial institutions, caring about the development of real economy and the impacts on real economy, preventing conflicts from discontinuing reform.