A股上市银行股票的内在价值与估值偏离分析

An Analysis of the Intrinsic Value and Value Deviation of the A-Share Listed Bank'Stocks

本文基于资本市场普遍采用的三阶段股利贴现模型,以三家A股代表性上市银行为样本,以较为谨慎的盈利增速,模拟测算了其内在价值,并与市场公开模型进行了结果印证。研究表明,A股上市银行股票的市场价格长期低于其内在价值区间,从模型参数角度分析,这种估值偏离的主要影响因素是实际折现率溢价、长期增长信心折价、非对称信息折价、短期投资考核机制等。本文认为,未来A股上市银行股价上涨的主要驱动力将会来自于自身估值回归,那些经营基本面良好、投资者关系公开透明的银行的股票或存在较大的估值回归动能。

Based on the three-stage Dividend Discount Model （DDM） which is generally used in capital markets, this paper estimates the intrinsic values of three representative A-share listed banks with moderate earnings growth, and compares the values with the outcomes of models used in open markets. The results of the paper show that the market prices of the stocks of A-share listed banks are below their intrinsic values over a long period of time. The analysis based on the model parameters shows that the main factors which impact value deviation are the premium of the real discount rate, the discount of the confidence in longterm growth, the discount of information asymmetry and the short-term appraisal mechanism of investment performance, etc. The paper argues that the main force to drive the stock prices of A-share listed banks to rise is that the values of stocks rise at their normal levels. The stocks of the banks that have good operational performance, open and transparent investor relationship maybe have a great possibility of value rising.