新兴市场国际资本流动的动因——基于亚洲和拉美新兴市场的研究

The Determinants of International Capital Flow in Emerging Markets——A Study Based on Asian and Latin American Emerging Markets

本文基于亚洲和拉美新兴市场13个样本国家1980--2013年的季度数据,运用静态和动态非均衡面板模型,对国际资本流动两种重要形式——直接投资和证券投资的动因进行区域比较研究。实证结果表明：本国和发达国家经济发展水平均对新兴市场的国际资本流动具有较为明显的拉动和推动作用;贸易开放度、利率水平、金融深化程度等表征一国投资环境的指标是国际资本流动的重要驱动因素;重大事件的发生、经济预期和汇市预期等预期因素的作用亦不可忽视;直接投资和证券投资的驱动因素存在显著的区域性差异。

Based on the quarterly data of 13 sample countries, the Asian and Latin American emerging markets, during 1980-- 2013, this paper uses static and dynamic disequilibrium panel data models to compare regionally the determinants of the two important forms of international capital flow, direct investment and security investment. The empirical results show that the national and developed countries＇ economic development levels play a significant role in pulling and pushing the international capital flow in the emerging markets; the levels of trade openness, interest rate and financial deepening, etc., which are indexes repre- senting a country＇s investment environment, are major factors to promote international capital flow; major events, economic ex- pectation, currency market expectation and other expectation factors also play a significant role. There is obviously a regional difference in the determinants of direct investment and security investment.