新疆兵团耕地资源变化及其驱动力研究

Study on the Change of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps' Cultivated Land Resources and Its Driving Force

利用1990~2012年的耕地资源数据及社会经济统计数据，对新疆生产建设兵团的耕地资源变化趋势进行了分析，利用主成分分析方法定量分析兵团耕地资源变化的驱动力，认为经济因素、人口因素及农业技术因素是影响兵团耕地资源变化的主要驱动力，并建立了耕地面积与驱动因子之间的多元线性回归模型以便于未来耕地数量的预测，最后针对耕地变化的驱动力从促进兵团农业可持续发展的角度提出保护耕地的建议。

The change of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps’ （XPCC）cultivated land resources since 1990 were ana-lyzed based on the relevant statistical data of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps’ cultivated land resources and so-cial and economic development. By analyzing the driving factors of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps’ cultivated land resources change through using principal component analytical method, the authors have found that demographic factors, economic factors and agricultural technology are the main driving forces of change of XPCCs’ cultivated land resources and multiple linear regression models were established between the cultivated area and the driving factors. At last, according to the driving factors of cultivated land, from the perspective of agricultural sustainability, suggestions on how to protect cultivat-ed land are put forward.