基于安顺市土地利用总体规划的碳效应评估与低碳优化

Carbon Effect Evaluation and Low Carbon Optimization Under Integrated Land-use Plan of Anshun City

为了合理地利用有限的土地资源,探究土地利用结构对碳效应的影响,以贵州省安顺市为例,利用安顺市土地利用变更数据和社会经济数据,对安顺市土地利用总体规划方案的碳效应进行了评估,并采用模糊线性规划模型对安顺市土地利用结构进行低碳优化。结果表明:到2020年,安顺市土地利用结构的碳储积量和碳排放量,将分别达到9 676.02万t和325.91万t,比2005年分别增加了584.2万t和151.45万t;碳排放最小化方案2比碳储积最大化方案1更加低碳优化,碳储积总量将增加197.93万t,碳排放量将减少21.46万t。

To more reasonably use the limited land resources and explore the influences of land use structure on carbon effect,the authors analyzed the assessment results about carbon effect of integrated land-use plan,and optimized the land use structure of Anshun City with low carbon by using the fuzzy linear programming model via land use change data and social economic data of Anshun City.The results show that in 2020,the carbon accumulations and carbon emissions of Anshun City land use structure would reach 96 760 200 tons and 3 259 100 tons.And increased by 5 842 000 tons and 1,514,500 tons from the 2005 level;min carbon emission scheme 2 is more low-carbon optimum than max carbon accumulation scheme 1,because carbon accumulations increase by 1 979 300 tons,but carbon emissions will reduce by 214,600 tons under the implementation of min carbon emission scheme 2.