基于Logistic回归模型的降雨型泥石流临界雨量定量分析

Quantitative analysis of critical rainfall debris flow based on Logistic regression model

诱发泥石流形成的主要原因就是降雨,研究降雨影响泥石流形成的机制,对泥石流防治具有重要意义。Logistic回归模型实际上是一种降雨对泥石流发生概率的影响的定量分析方法。利用这一模型对泥石流灾害进行定量预测的关键是科学选择自变量雨量数据。有了前期有效降雨量和当日雨量,就可以利用降雨型泥石流临界雨量Logistic回归分析模型,对泥石流临界雨量进行分析,进而得到不同降雨情况下泥石流灾害的发生概率。

The formation of the debris flow is mainly due to the rain induced.Analysis of the formation mechanism of debris flow, the prediction of critical rainfall debris flow activities in the future,is of great significance to the prevention of debris flow.Logistic regression model is actually a quantitative analysis method of influence of a rainfall probability of occurrence of the debris flow.The key for the quantitative prediction of debris flow by using this model is scientific choice variable rainfall data.The antecedent effective rainfall and the rainfall, can use the rainfall debris flow critical rainfall Logistic regression analysis model, the critical rainfall for debris flow analysis, and then get the probability of occurrence of debris flow disasters in different rainfall conditions.