基于协同克里金法的取用水量审核模型

Audit Model Building of Water Supply and Consumption Quality Based on Co-Kriging

论文基于安徽省2011年取水口资料,研究提出从已有总取水口数据中抽取部分数据,建立模型来审核其余取水口数据的方法。该方法以按流域分层抽样的方式对总数据进行抽样,分别得到建模数据(样本数据)和检测数据;采用ArcGIS地统计学中距离权重反比法、普通克里金法和协同克里金法分别对样本数据进行建模,根据预测误差和验证误差分析建模结果的精确度。在利用协同克里金法建模时,不同变异函数的模型对建模结果造成影响,通过分析对比选择了球形模型。利用所建模型对检测数据进行审核,取得较为合理的成果,可为最严格水资源管理制度考核工作提供借鉴。

A method which samples part of the data from the overall is peoposed to build a model to audit the rest data based on Co Kriging.The intake data in 2011 of anhui province are taken as an example.Firstly,the method samples data randomly from each water basin at a specific ratio and combines them to a whole.Secondly,the sample data are modeled with three different methods which are inverse distance weighting,Ordinary Kriging,and Cokriging.The accuracy of the modeling results is analyzed according to the predicted error to validated error,finding the method of Cokriging is superior to the others.When modeling with the aid of Cokriging,different variation functions contribute to different modeling results.Spherical model is chosen at last according to the predicted error.Finally,the rest data are audited with the built model and satisfactory results are obtained.This research provides a reference to the implementation of the most stringent assessment methods of water management system.