基于蒙特卡洛法的潜射鱼雷发现概率计算

Calculation of Detection Probability for Sub-Launch Torpedo Based on Monte-Carlo Method

鱼雷发现概率是潜艇鱼雷武器系统作战效能的重要指标之一,通过实航试验考核该指标将需要较大的样本量,这不仅需要较长时间,而且也将付出巨大的经济代价。为此,在阐述潜艇鱼雷武器射击导引的原理和模型的基础上,充分利用了海上试验数据和仿真计算相结合的方法,使其能在较少样本量的情况下,达到考核潜射鱼雷发现概率的目的。

Detection probability of a torpedo is one of the most important indexes of operational effectiveness for submarine torpedo weapon system. However, assessing the index in sea trial requires a big sample size, which means a huge expense of time and cost. Hence, a statistical test method of detection probability for a sub-launch torpedo is proposed according to the principle and mathematical model of torpedo shoot and guidance. This method makes full use of sea trial data in simulation, thus can effectively assess the detection probability of sub-launch torpedo with a small sample size.