城市间地价竞争的人口城镇化效应研究——以山东省为例

The Effect of Land Price Competition among Cities on Demographic Urbanization——A Case Study of Shandong Province

以山东省为例,研究城市间"双向竞争"地价策略对人口城镇化进程的影响。在理论分析的基础上,建立计量模型,引入人口城镇化的其他主要影响因素作为控制变量,将地价政策的人口城镇化效应单独剥离显示,利用2006-2010年山东省17个设区市的面板数据,实证分析了"双向竞争"地价策略的人口城镇化效应。研究结果显示现阶段山东省城市间无论是向下竞工业地价还是向上竞商住地价,均对人口城镇化和户籍人口城镇化进程产生了正向作用。

Taking Shandong province as an example, we studied the effect of intercity ＂two orientation competition＂ land price policy on demographic urbanization. Based on the theoretical analysis, we designed an econometric model that introduces the chief influential factor of urbanization as a control variable which independently exhibits the effect. With the designed model this paper systematically analyzed this effect through the analysis of the relevant data of 17 cities in Shandong province from 2006 to 2010. The results showed that industrial land price race-to-bottom currently accelerates the process of demographic urbanization. Contrary to expectation, commercial and residential land price race-to-ceiling also have a positive effect on urbanization.