云南干旱“常态化”的分析

Analysis of Drought Normalization in Yunnan Province

近年来云南持续发生严重干旱,云南干旱是否日趋"常态化"成为社会各界关心的一个热点问题,相关报道不断见诸媒体。本文从水文的角度对云南省的历史干旱、水文要素以及趋势预测等方面进行了深入的分析。在历史依据和现代气象水文观测数据的支撑下,考察近100年来全球增暖可能导致部分地区干旱化的可能,从而认为近年来提出的云南干旱"常态化"存在科学依据;但干旱"常态化"仅能局限于近现代时期这一时间范畴,对于今后更长时期云南省干旱发展趋势,依据现有技术手段及研究成果尚难以判断把握。

Severe droughts have frequently occurred in Yunnan Province in recent years, and it has become a focus of public con- cern whether the droughts have got in normalization. In this paper, we analyzed the droughts in the aspects of hydrology, drought history, hydrologic factors, and drought prediction. Supported by historical meteorological and hydrological records, we investigated the possibility whether global warming has increased drought frequency in some regions in the last one hundred years. The results provide strong evidence that droughts in Yunnan Province have become normalization. However, the normalization of droughts only occurred in the recent decade. As for the drought trend in Yunnan in the future, it is still difficult to predict by relying on cur- rent technology and research findings.