气候变化对陇东塬区冬小麦生长的影响分析

Analysis of the Impacts of Climate Change on Winter Wheat Growth in Loess Plateau Region of East Gansu

为了研究气候变化对冬小麦生长的影响,利用陇东塬区1981—2013连续33年冬小麦生育期观测资料及气候因子资料,采用线性回归、多项式函数、气候倾向率等方法,分析气候变化对冬小麦的影响。结果表明,33年来,冬小麦生育期内,平均气温显著增加,气候倾向率为0.75℃/10 a;有效积温上升,气候倾向率为45.79℃/10 a;降水总量下降,气候倾向率为-29.17 mm/10 a;日照时数增加,气候倾向率为25.75 h/10 a。气候变化引起陇东塬区冬小麦播种期和越冬开始期推迟,返青、拔节、抽穗、成熟期提前,冬小麦全生育期显著缩短,倾向率为-6.69 d/10 a;植株生长高度下降;植株密度,三叶期增加,其余发育期减少;分蘖数和大蘖数减少;越冬死亡率下降;不孕小穗率减少,籽粒数、千粒重、亩成穗率增加。1981—2013年陇东塬区冬小麦气候产量呈上升趋势,气候产量与生育期内平均气温呈负相关,与降水量、有效积温和日照时数呈正相关,水资源短缺是陇东塬区冬小麦生长的制约因素,温度是影响冬小麦产量的关键因子。

In order to study the impacts of climate change on winter wheat growth, the author used the winterwheat growth observation data and climatic factors data of consecutive 33 years（1981-2013） in the east ofGansu Province, took linear regression, polynomial function, climate tendency rate and other methods toanalyze the impacts of climate change on winter wheat. The results showed that in the growth period of winterwheat of the past 33 years, the average temperature increased significantly, climate tendency rate was 0.75℃/10 a; effective accumulated temperature rose, climate tendency rate was 45.79℃/10 a; total precipitationdecreased, the climate tendency rate was-29.17 mm/10 a; sunshine duration increased, climate tendency ratewas 25.75 h/10 a. Climate change postponed sowing and wintering of wheat, brought ahead turning green,jointing, heading and mature time, shorted the whole growth period of winter wheat, the tendency rate was-6.669 d/10 a; plant height decreased; plant density and trefoil stage increased, the development periodreduced, tiller number and tiller number; overwintering mortality decreased; the rate of sterile spikeletdecreased, grain number, 1000 grain weight, spike rate increased acres. Climate yield of winter wheat in loessplateau region of east Gansu in 1981-2013 had a tendency of increase, yield and growth period of climate wasnegatively correlated with average temperature, precipitation, accumulated temperature and sunshine hourswere positively correlated, the shortage of water resources was the restricting factor of winter wheat growth ineast of GansuProvince, the temperature was the keyfactor to affect theyield of winterwheat.