老龄化加速期人口因素对日本经济增长的影响——以人口、经济的双重拐点为视角

The Effects of Demographic Factors on Japan's Economic Growth in the Accelerating Ageing Period:A Perspective from the Double Turning Points of Population and Economics

20世纪70年代,日本经济增长和人口年龄结构变动都迎来"拐点",前者指日本经济由高增长进入低增长,后者指日本步入人口老龄化阶段。历史增长核算法认为,在中长期内,一国或地区的实际GDP等于劳动生产率、劳动力利用效率和劳动年龄人口三者的乘积,这是分析日本经济在老龄化加速期的增长历程、预测其前景的有效工具。通过实证研究发现:劳动生产率的提升是日本经济长期增长的最主要动力;劳动力利用效率总体稳定,但对日本经济长期增长拉动效果有限;人口因素不再支持日本的经济增长,人口条件越来越转向不利方面,作用程度也越来越强,劳动年龄人口减少将成为长期困扰日本经济增长的重要结构性因素。

In the 1970s, both Japans economic growth and the population age structure experienced the turning point. The former refers to Japans economy entering into a low - speed growth stage, and the latter refers to Japans stepping into dium and long run the the ageing society. According to the historical growth accounting framework, in the mereal GDP of a country （ or a region） is a product of labor force productivity, labor force utilization and working age population, which is an effective method of analyzing the course of Japans economic growth in the accelerating ageing period and projecting its prospects. The results via the empirical study show that： the improvement of labor force productivity has been the most important driver of Japans GDP growth, labor force utilization remains stable in general but its driving effect on long term economic growth is limited, and the effect of demographic factors （ working age turned negative from positive, and the shrinkage of population for example） on Japan＇s economic growth has working age population will become an important structural factor which hinders Japans economic growth in a long period.