经济增长、货币供给对通货膨胀的冲击反应研究——基于美国与中、日、韩三国的GVAR实证分析

Shocks of Economic Growth and Money Supply on Inflation:An Empirical Analysis of the United States and China,Japan and South Korea under the GVAR Model

本文从经济增长和货币供给对通货膨胀冲击影响角度出发,利用GVAR模型将贸易联系紧密的4个国家——中国、日本、韩国和美国视为一整体,考察相关变量的冲击反应影响。研究表明,无论源自国内还是其他三国的经济增长和货币供给冲击,中国的通货膨胀率与其他三国的通货膨胀率相比响应最为显著,且持续时间较长,自动调节能力较差;相比中国和日本,美国宏观经济基本面升温对提升其他三国价格水平具有更大的拉动作用,且美元供给冲击对各国通货膨胀的影响高于日元;在东北亚区域内,中国经济增长对日韩通货膨胀的压力高于来自日本的经济增长;整体来看,主要货币冲击对通胀的影响小于各国经济增长冲击对通胀的影响。

Economic growth, money supply and inflation are three most important variables in macroeconom- ics. The interaction relations among them are complex and changeable, so it is difficult for researchers to clearly study the theory and make policies. Previous studies mostly focus on the domestic relations between the three variables, but in the context of economic globalization, interaction and feedback abroad should also be incorporated into the analysis. Using the GVAR model, this paper analyzes the four economies, China, Japan, South Korea and the United States, which are closely connected their dynamic relationships between economic growth, through economy and trade, and only focus on money supply and inflation. The results show that whether from domestic or abroad, the response of China＇s inflation to the economic growth and money is the most significant, and sustained for a long time, so the ability of its adjustment is poor. supply shocks Compared with China and Japan, the economic growth from the United States has a more important role in Northeast Asian market, and the shock from dollars supply is higher than yen. In Northeast Asia, the pressure from Chinese economic growth is higher than that from Japanese economic less than that of each country economic growth growth ; Major currency supply shock on inflation is less than that of each country economic growth.