基于优化定权与灰色聚类的人流密集场所应急疏散能力评价

Evaluation of emergency evacuation capacity based on weight optimization and grey clustering in assembly occupancies

为研究人流密集场所应急疏散能力,在分析构成人流密集场所应急能力影响因素的基础上,对影响人流密集场所应急能力的主要影响因素从人员、建筑、环境、交通、管理5个方面进行了的分析,建立了表征人流密集场所应急疏散能力的多层次安全评价指标体系。将评价指标优化定权方法与灰色聚类分析方法相结合,应用于人流密集场所应急疏散能力评价。应用最小二乘法优化层次分析法与熵权法得到的指标权值,克服了评价过程中指标权重主观性强的弊端,保证了指标权值的合理性;应用灰色聚类分析方法,用灰类白化权函数来量化各评价指标隶属于不同评价等级的程度进行评价,以增加评价结果的可信度,进而得出人流密集场所应急疏散能力的评价结果。应用该方法对西安火车站地下商场区进行评价,通过对评价结果的分析反映出该区域在应急疏散方面存在的不足,为该区域应急疏散能力的提升与安全管理工作的持续改进提供了的参考依据;该方法可操作性强、便于计算实现,是一种实用的综合评价方法。

In order to study the emergency evacuation capacity of assembly occupancies, based on analysis of the influence factors of emergency capacity in assembly occupancies, the main influence factors were analyzed from the aspects of the staff, architecture, environment, transportation and management. And the multi-level evaluation index system which can show the emergency evacuation capacity in assembly occupancies was built. Then the method combining optimized weight method and grey clustering method was applied to evaluation. By optimizing AHP and entropy weight using least squares method, the index weight was obtained,which overcome the subjectivity of index weight and guaranteed the rationality of index weight. Using grey clustering method, the evaluation was made by quantifying the degree of evaluation index affiliating to estimation scale with definite weighted functions, which increased the reliability of evaluation and obtained the evaluation results. The underground shopping mall of Xi＇ an railway station was evaluated using this method, the evaluation results show that the deficiency of emergency capacity existed in this area, and it would provide basis for the development in emergency capacity and the improvement of safety management, it also shows that this method is practical, operable and easy to calculation.