组织情境下基于证据理论的航空维修安全评估

Improved assessment method of aviation maintenance safety based on the evidence theory under the organizational situation

考虑组织情境下组织因素对航空维修安全的深层次影响,将D-S证据理论引入航空维修安全评估中,以解决评估过程中组织因素导致的不确定性问题,从而为开展航空维修安全管理提供手段和方法。依据Frank Bird的事故因果连锁理论和James Reason的"瑞士奶酪"模型,通过对影响航空维修安全的主要因素进行分析,构建了航空维修安全评估指标体系,并采用层次分析法对指标权重进行了量化;在对基本可信度分配函数重新定义的基础上,通过对证据合成法则进行修正,给出了基于证据理论的航空维修安全评估模型和算法,并结合具体实例对评估模型的可行性和实用性进行了验证。结果表明,考虑组织因素对航空维修安全的影响符合客观实际,建立的评估指标体系和评估模型是可行的、有效的和实用的。

Considering the profound influence of the organizational factors on the aviation maintenance safety under the organizational sit uation, this paper ＇has developed an assessment model for the aviation maintenance safety based on DempsterShafer evidence theory. Ac cording to the causeeffect accident chain theory of Frank Bird ＆ the Swiss Cheese Model of James Reason, we have established a system of safety assessment indicators of the aviation maintenance via the analysis of main factors influencing the aviation maintenance safety, in which the organizational factors are regardless of man, machine and environment. What we would like to do is to make use of the analytic hierarchical process for measuring the index weights. Our model of safety assessment has been established based on the evi dence theory and the new definition of basic reliability assignment function, paying attention to the features of more uncertainties or un expectedness factors present in such safety assessment~ In the model developed by us, we have modified the evidence integration rule, which helps to gain the quantitative data through synthesizing or regu larizing the accumulated evidence by stratification based on the given fuzzy evaluation set and the original basic reliability assignment. And, finally, we have also taken a routine aviation maintenance sys tem, exploring how to apply the model to the assessment of the avia tion maintenance safety level, in which the feasibility and practicabil ity of the model can be examined and then proved while integrating the judgments of experts. The results show that it is consistent with the objective reality considering the influence of organizational fac tors, the indicator system and the model of safety assessment on avia tion maintenance are feasible, effective and practical. The prelimi nary application of this approach has shown that the aviation mainte nance management should be able to gain a deeper understanding the usefulness of the organizational factors in aviation maintenance acci dents, and the model tends to be able to decrease the uncertainties and unexpectedness of the expertise analysis power in the process of assessment.