基于模糊数的煤矿重大危险源三维风险模型

3-D risk assessment model for major hazard sources in the coal mine based on the fuzzy number theory

针对现有煤矿重大危险源风险评估方法的不足,结合风险特征的多维性,提出了包含风险因素重要度、风险发生可能性、风险后果3个参数的三维风险分析模型。在煤矿重大危险源影响因素相关研究的基础上,以3类危险源为理论基础,构建煤矿重大危险源风险分析层次结构模型。考虑风险影响因素难以精确量化的问题,采用模糊层次分析法确定各层指标权重,并以三角模糊数描述风险概率和风险后果。最后,以某煤矿顶板危险源为例,测试该方法的有效性和准确性。结果表明,相较于综合评价的二维风险模型而言,三维风险模型考虑了风险发生概率,使风险控制措施更具针对性。该方法有助于煤矿企业制定合理的重大危险源风险管理和控制措施。

To overcome the shortage of the current methods for as sessing the risks in mining production, this paper attempts to come up with a renovated method known as a 3-D risk assessment model by joining the multidimensional risk features in the given circumstances. The renovated model of ours includes three parameters risk index, risk likelihood and risk seriousness grade, which is formulated based on the more targeted risk control measures and the comparison of the twodimensional risk models while sufficiently predicting the risk probabilities and evaluating the analytic hierarchy process （AHP） to solve the decisionmaking problems in the mining conditions. We have introduced the constituent hierarchical model of factors affecting the hazard sources based on the relative study of the riskinvolving factors, such as the target layer, the rule layer, the factors layer, etc. All kinds of the uncertainties and subjectivities endowed with the risk factors taken into account of the risk assessment process, we have resolved to adopt the fuzzy theory to our method for it is fit for paneling the uncertain factors by using the riskinvolving indexes.The influential degree of the different factors can then be determined by the fuzzy hierarchical method, the probability with the conse quences of the risk also being described by a triangular fuzzy number. With the two methods above, it would be possible to analyze the haz ard risk of experts＇ semantic information. And, finally, an illustra tive example on the rooffalling hazards assessment of a certain coal is used to demonstrate the proposed model. In accordance with the cal culation results of the risk index weight, it can be predicted that the rooffalling hazards should be one of the three greatest influential fac tors likely to cause the mining risks, which is conformed to the rela tive reference. What is more, the said calculation results also indi cate the availability and applicability of the suggested threedimen sional risk model for risk assessment we have proposed. The renovat ed method we have proposed can also help the managers and engi neers of the coal mines to improve their mining control plan and for mulate management measures to get rid of the unexpected mining dis asters.